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When I take a 50-50 chance, I expect it to come off 8 times out of 10 (Hideous Hog)
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1♣
1♦
1♥
1♠
1NT
2♣
2♦
2♥
2♠
2NT
3NT
1♦ - 2M - 2NT
3♣ = 5413 or 5404
3♦ = 5431 or 5440
3♥ = 55xx ➤ 3♠/4♦ = natural & NF, cue = ♥ fit
3♠ = 5530 ➤ 4♣ = cue & ♥ fit, 4♦ = GF, 4M = TP
3NT = 5422
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